Tom Glavine won his 300th game in 2007 to become the 23rd player ever, and 12th since 1941. Also in 2007, three players hit their 500th home runs to keep the lists equal at 23, and Manny Ramirez’s 500th a few weeks back made in 24 total. The main difference will now be seen post-2007 as the 500 Home Run club will continue to climb, where as the 300 Win Club may stay at 23 for a long, long time. In 2008 we already have Manny and there may be another as Gary Sheffield had 480 entering this season. If Randy Johnson doesn’t win 16 games this season, which seems pretty impossible considering he’s already been on the DL we may never see another 300 game winner again. Don’t believe me, then keep reading and check this out.
Between 1888, when the first pitcher reached 300 wins (Pud Galvin), and 1924 there were 11 pitchers to get to 300 wins. There are countless factors as to why more players reached the milestone before the 30’s but two main ones that stick out are the 3 and 4 man rotations and lack of relief pitchers. Most pitchers started over 40 games a season, and ended almost every game they began as relief pitchers were almost non-existent.
A pitcher needs 20 seasons of 15 wins to get to 300, a feat that was for the most part more simple before 1930. Many teams are moving their starting pitchers along slowly in the organization with limitations on innings pitched which leads to less decisions for pitchers before the age of 23. Also we have seen the importance of the "specialized relief pitcher" that leads to pitchers not pitching deep into games like we used to see. Take a look at the last 12 pitchers to reach 300 wins.
The 12 pitchers on that list had an average age of 41.2 years and notched their 300th win in their 19.42 season. That means a pitcher needs over 15 wins a season for more than 19 seasons and start pitching while they are 21 years of age. The closest to 300 wins right now are Randy Johnson who started the season with 284 and is 44 years old. Following on the list of pitchers active this season are Jamie Moyer (230/45), Kenny Rogers (210/43), Pedro Martinez (209/36), John Smoltz (207/41), and Andy Pettite (201/14). All these pitchers are at the end of their careers and not including Pettite and Martinez, may not pitch past this season. As for Martinez, he would need 5 seasons of 15 wins to reach the mark, and Pettite would need 6 seasons of 16 wins, plus another 4 wins.
Beyond those pitchers, most pitchers are averaging around 110 wins at their 30th birthday and would need almost 200 wins after the age of 30 to get to 300. If we ever do see another 300 game winner it will not be for a long time as no active pitcher started this season with total wins between 136-201. While we will be seeing many, many more 500 home-run hitters, it could be 15, 20, maybe more years until another 300 game winner as the MLB moves further away from pitchers finishing games and getting enough starts.
